Just now, a spectacle appeared in human history! The 2005 US crude oil contract fell to negative numbers for an unprecedented time! The lowest, fell to -40.31 US dollars!
What do you mean? For example, if I am a crude oil buyer, you are a crude oil seller, and I want to buy your oil. I bought this contract. Not only do you don’t want my money, you have to pour me 40.31 for every barrel I buy from you. Dollar. This kind of private market vendors' irony of buyers, "You buy my things, I have to find your money", was born in the world's largest commodity futures market.
You say, is this a historical wonder? Isn’t it crazy?
So how did this historical wonder come about? The article behind this is big. It can be said that it is extremely complicated! Without analyzing the other Zhanhao, I will show you a piece of news that was hardly noticed a few days ago.
According to news from Brokerage China, on April 15th, CME Group Clearing House issued a test announcement stating that if there is a zero or negative price, all CME trading and clearing systems will continue to operate normally, and all regular transactions and position processing can be cleared In execution, the test preparation has been completed.
In other words, just a few days ago, the Chicago Board of Trade completed the zero price and negative price test of oil. As a result, the exchange system opened the negative price "switch" of the trading contract, so today's oil plunged to- It’s a historical wonder of 40 dollars a barrel.
This historical event, if viewed from a single perspective, seems to have its logic, but they are all incomplete, so Zhanhao's subsequent analysis is multi-level and multi-perspective.
First, analyze it from a purely economic perspective.
What is the logic of oil falling into a negative value? In fact, it is still related to the new crown.
First analyze the overall environment. Due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the economies of all countries in the world are in a state of shock, production has stopped, oil demand has plummeted, oil cannot be sold, and funds cannot be returned. In this case, the oil consumption is less, should it be saved? Does oil storage cost? Does oil transportation cost? It is necessary to transport the oil back and find a place to store it. As a result, there is no demand on the demand side, and the oil becomes a hot potato. No one wants to throw the oil in their hands. Buy it, so there is a negative value of oil prices. Is this economic logic perfect?
There are more details. Since the 2005 contract is about to be delivered on Tuesday, everyone is eager to let go of their own contracts. At this time, no one is willing to take over these contracts, so the person who holds the contract will post money for others to take over. The contract, then staged an extreme oil price of $-40.
Therefore, the logic of the collapse from an economic perspective is that the new crown has caused the global economy to shut down, which has led to a collapse in global oil demand. At the same time, American analysts are saying that the United States has run out of oil storage space and there is no place to put crude oil. There is no place to put it, so there is a spectacle in which everyone sticks money and throws contracts.
Therefore, we have seen that American commodity futures reviews are all saying that the United States has no place for oil. What should I do if there is no place for oil? So the contract was no longer needed, so the contract was sold in reverse.
However, if you look at Brent crude oil again, it would be calm! The 2005 US crude oil contract fell to -40 US dollars a barrel, and Brent crude oil hardly fell.
In fact, looking at other U.S. crude oil contracts, it is normal. Even the most recent contract in 2006 has fallen by less than 4%.
So, what is the situation? Why did the Dudu 2005 contract fall into a negative number?
In fact, from a technical point of view, according to the above, the United States has no place to store oil, so the price of oil storage will skyrocket. In this case, the holder of the contract, in order not to store oil, would rather pay the money and want to keep it in his hands. The contract was thrown out, so there was a case of selling oil and paying for the money. It was born under this kind of logic to sell oil and pay for it.
So, why did you choose to fall so much at this time?
The reason is that April 21 is the last trading day of the New Zealand Crude Oil 2005 contract. If the contract is not sold anymore, the holder of the contract will have to deliver the contract, get the oil in his hand, and then have to transport the oil back. , Because the refinery company no longer wants it, it has to find a place to stock up oil. Finally, under this expectation, the market panics, so more people are willing to spend more money to throw away the contract to avoid passively hoarding oil.
In fact, to put it bluntly, the original counterparty holding the contract sheet is gone, and the person who really wants to buy oil no longer accepts the order, so the person holding the contract can only do this in order to avoid being delivered. So, who is the opponent? It is nothing more than oil refining companies and people who need oil reserves. However, now these people are no longer accepting these oils on the grounds of the new crown epidemic.
The above is the market logic of New Zealand crude oil falling to a negative value.
However, if this logic is pure, shouldn't Brent crude oil fall sharply? The 2006 New Zealand crude oil contract should also plummet. After all, the new crown epidemic will not be good in one month, and the world economy will not be good! Why did the 2005 contract fall?
In Zhanhao's view, all of this is actually an appropriate manipulation, a manipulation to achieve a special purpose, and all of this has its own very strong purpose.
As far as the timing is concerned, it was very accurate. The test was completed on April 15 and it was staged on April 20, US time, which was very short. This is because you can only play this way before the delivery, otherwise it will continue to be negative for a long time, like China's "oil tiger", isn't it true that how much oil is consumed? Wouldn't it be a big loss? Therefore, it is necessary to find the last trading day, to suppress oil prices in this way is controllable.
For this reason, since April 30 is the last trading day, Brent crude oil is not affected much at all, and even the 2006 New Zealand crude oil contract has little impact. The panic created by the market and the so-called crude oil reserves full of such information will soon become transparent. This is to play a short, flat, fast, hard game to suppress oil prices. Considering that the cost of suppressing oil prices cannot be too high, it must be suppressed at the last moment before delivery.
If the decline in oil prices this time is a suppression of oil prices, what is the purpose of the US suppression? In Zhanhao's view, this is the U.S. authorities and capital forces who are using the new crown epidemic to conspire to "anti-kill" their opponents! Taken together, there are four major purposes:
Zhanhao had previously analyzed that the previous plunge in international oil prices was, to a certain extent, a “double reed” by Saudi Arabia and Russia using the new crown epidemic to “deduct” the contradiction between each other in terms of production cuts in exchange for the plunge in oil prices. Objectively, the US shale oil and gas industry was suppressed.
The cost of Saudi oil is very low, about US$2 to US$5 a barrel, and Russia’s is not high, about US$5. Therefore, despite the international oil price plummeting, they can continue to export to make money despite the pressure, but the cost of shale oil in the United States is 60 US dollars a barrel. This blow is great for shale oil. The United States has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the development of shale oil, and these money investments may be in vain.
In this context, the United States will use its futures market to seize pricing power. Suppressing oil prices and squeezing the economies of Russia and Saudi Arabia is the basis for compelling the two countries to compromise. Therefore, the United States simply does not stop and directly suppresses international oil prices, even to negative numbers.
This suppression to a negative number is announcing to Saudi Arabia and Russia that the United States can fight hard and use technical capabilities to severely suppress oil prices. If necessary, the United States will continue to exert pressure to suppress international oil prices to extremely low levels, so that Saudi Arabia and Russia will lose this. Income.
Therefore, this trick is to retaliate against Saudi Arabia and Russia, forcing them to cut production even more so as to maintain long-term oil price expectations. This is the intention of the US capital interests.
Dealing with such a big thing cannot be just a matter of capital. In fact, it must be supported by political forces. So, for the United States, the epidemic has now half-paralyzed the US economy. In this case, what the US government wants is to throw the pot away for China. However, the U.S. economy is not good. If other countries’ economies are worse, does the U.S. look better?
Now that the United States has created panic by suppressing oil prices, it can further amplify the crisis and further ferment it on a global scale. The greater the international crisis, the better the United States appears. After all, the United States is the world's largest power and possesses financial investment hegemony. Once the global crisis breaks out, the U.S. dollar will have the opportunity to buy more cheap assets, which is beneficial to the United States.
Now that the new crown epidemic is uncontrollable in the United States, Trump is a bit worried about being re-elected due to the new crown epidemic. Biden is sitting at home waiting for the presidential throne to hit his head. For Trump, now must fight hard. How to fight? In fact, according to the historical fact that the bigger the crisis, the higher the support that the president tends to get, then the bigger the global crisis, the more challenging Trump seems, and the greater the probability of Trump being re-elected.
Moreover, if the crisis becomes greater, then Trump has reason to postpone the election so that he can buy time for himself. At the same time, if the crisis is greater, Trump can continue to occupy the presidency on wartime grounds. Therefore, from a campaign perspective, this adventure is easy to gain support.
At the same time, the United States is actually gaining control over the world in wartime. The United States can manipulate prices at will, which can affect the global economy. The display of this ability is also a means by which the United States is doing everything possible to force its opponents to submit.
Yes, this is a counter-attack by the United States!
As Zhanhao said in his previous analysis, under the influence of the new crown epidemic, there will be many black swan incidents around the world, and this is the new black swan incident! ! ! In the future, there will be more unexpected black swans! ! !
正如詹浩在先前的分析中所说，在新的冠状流行病的影响下，世界范围内将有许多黑天鹅事件发生，这就是新的黑天鹅事件！ ！ ！将来会有更多意想不到的黑天鹅！ ！ ！