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欧宝体育平台-美原油崩盘跌至负值,美国反杀开始了!



发布日期:2021-03-07 01:35:01 发布者:Admin5  点击率:

Just now, a spectacle appeared in human history! The 2005 US crude oil contract fell to negative numbers for an unprecedented time! The lowest, fell to -40.31 US dollars!

刚才,人类历史上出现了奇观! 2005年美国原油合约跌至负数,史无前例!最低,跌至-40.31美元!

What do you mean? For example, if I am a crude oil buyer, you are a crude oil seller, and I want to buy your oil. I bought this contract. Not only do you don’t want my money, you have to pour me 40.31 for every barrel I buy from you. Dollar. This kind of private market vendors' irony of buyers, "You buy my things, I have to find your money", was born in the world's largest commodity futures market.

你什么意思?例如,如果我是原油买家,则您是原油卖家,而我想购买您的石油。我买了这份合同。您不仅不想要我的钱,还必须为我从您那里购买的每桶石油倒40.31欧元。美元。这种私募市场卖方对买方的讽刺意味是:“您购买我的东西,我必须找到您的钱”,诞生于世界最大的商品期货市场。

You say, is this a historical wonder? Isn’t it crazy?

您说,这是历史奇迹吗?疯了吗?

So how did this historical wonder come about? The article behind this is big. It can be said that it is extremely complicated! Without analyzing the other Zhanhao, I will show you a piece of news that was hardly noticed a few days ago.

那么这个历史奇迹是怎么产生的呢?这背后的文章很大。可以说这是极其复杂的!在不分析其他战号的情况下,我将向您展示一条几天前几乎没有注意到的新闻。

According to news from Brokerage China, on April 15th, CME Group Clearing House issued a test announcement stating that if there is a zero or negative price, all CME trading and clearing systems will continue to operate normally, and all regular transactions and position processing can be cleared In execution, the test preparation has been completed.

根据Brokerage China的消息,4月15日,芝商所清算所发布了一份测试公告,指出如果价格为零或负数,所有芝商所交易和清算系统将继续正常运行,并且所有常规交易和头寸处理都可以在执行中,测试准备已完成。

In other words, just a few days ago, the Chicago Board of Trade completed the zero price and negative price test of oil. As a result, the exchange system opened the negative price "switch" of the trading contract, so today's oil plunged to- It’s a historical wonder of 40 dollars a barrel.

换句话说,就在几天前,芝加哥交易委员会完成了对石油的零价和负价测试。结果,外汇交易系统打开了交易合同的负价“开关”,所以今天的石油价格暴跌,这是每桶40美元的历史奇迹。

This historical event, if viewed from a single perspective, seems to have its logic, but they are all incomplete, so Zhanhao's subsequent analysis is multi-level and multi-perspective.

如果从单一角度来看,这个历史事件似乎有其逻辑,但它们都不是完整的,因此詹浩的后续分析是多层次和多角度的。

First, analyze it from a purely economic perspective.

首先,从纯粹的经济学角度进行分析。

What is the logic of oil falling into a negative value? In fact, it is still related to the new crown.

油价跌至负值的逻辑是什么?实际上,它仍然与新皇冠有关。

First analyze the overall environment. Due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the economies of all countries in the world are in a state of shock, production has stopped, oil demand has plummeted, oil cannot be sold, and funds cannot be returned. In this case, the oil consumption is less, should it be saved? Does oil storage cost? Does oil transportation cost? It is necessary to transport the oil back and find a place to store it. As a result, there is no demand on the demand side, and the oil becomes a hot potato. No one wants to throw the oil in their hands. Buy it, so there is a negative value of oil prices. Is this economic logic perfect?

首先分析一下整体环境。由于新的王冠流行的爆发,世界各国的经济都处于震惊状态,生产停止了,石油需求暴跌,石油无法出售,资金也无法退还。在这种情况下,油耗少了,应该节省吗?储油费用吗?石油运输费用吗?有必要将油运回去并找到存放的地方。结果,需求侧没有需求,并且油变成了烫手山芋。没有人愿意把油扔在他们手中。购买它,因此油价存在负值。这种经济逻辑完美吗?

There are more details. Since the 2005 contract is about to be delivered on Tuesday, everyone is eager to let go of their own contracts. At this time, no one is willing to take over these contracts, so the person who holds the contract will post money for others to take over. The contract, then staged an extreme oil price of $-40.

有更多详细信息。由于2005年合同将于周二交付,因此每个人都渴望放弃自己的合同。目前,没有人愿意接手这些合同,因此持有合同的人将把钱过帐给他人。然后,该合约上演了-40美元的最高油价。

Therefore, the logic of the collapse from an economic perspective is that the new crown has caused the global economy to shut down, which has led to a collapse in global oil demand. At the same time, American analysts are saying that the United States has run out of oil storage space and there is no place to put crude oil. There is no place to put it, so there is a spectacle in which everyone sticks money and throws contracts.

因此,从经济角度来看,崩溃的逻辑是,新的王冠导致了全球经济的崩溃,从而导致了全球石油需求的崩溃。同时,美国分析家说,美国的石油储存空间已经用完,没有地方放原油。没有放置它的地方,因此存在着一种奇观,每个人都在其中粘钱并抛出合同。

Therefore, we have seen that American commodity futures reviews are all saying that the United States has no place for oil. What should I do if there is no place for oil? So the contract was no longer needed, so the contract was sold in reverse.

因此,我们已经看到,美国商品期货评论都在说美国没有石油储备。如果没有放油的地方该怎么办?因此不再需要该合同,因此该合同被反向出售。

However, if you look at Brent crude oil again, it would be calm! The 2005 US crude oil contract fell to -40 US dollars a barrel, and Brent crude oil hardly fell.

但是,如果您再次查看布伦特原油,那将是平静的! 2005年美国原油合约跌至每桶-40美元,布伦特原油几乎没有下跌。

In fact, looking at other U.S. crude oil contracts, it is normal. Even the most recent contract in 2006 has fallen by less than 4%.

实际上,从其他美国原油合约来看,这是正常的。即使是2006年的最新合同也下降了不到4%。

So, what is the situation? Why did the Dudu 2005 contract fall into a negative number?

那么,情况如何?为什么Dudu 2005合同会变成负数?

In fact, from a technical point of view, according to the above, the United States has no place to store oil, so the price of oil storage will skyrocket. In this case, the holder of the contract, in order not to store oil, would rather pay the money and want to keep it in his hands. The contract was thrown out, so there was a case of selling oil and paying for the money. It was born under this kind of logic to sell oil and pay for it.

实际上,从技术上讲,根据以上所述,美国没有储油的地方,因此储油的价格将飞涨。在这种情况下,合同的持有人为了不储存石油,宁愿付款,也希望将其掌握在手中。合同被取消了,所以有一个卖石油并付钱的案例。它是根据这种逻辑出售石油并付钱的。

So, why did you choose to fall so much at this time?

那么,为什么此时您选择跌倒太多呢?

The reason is that April 21 is the last trading day of the New Zealand Crude Oil 2005 contract. If the contract is not sold anymore, the holder of the contract will have to deliver the contract, get the oil in his hand, and then have to transport the oil back. , Because the refinery company no longer wants it, it has to find a place to stock up oil. Finally, under this expectation, the market panics, so more people are willing to spend more money to throw away the contract to avoid passively hoarding oil.

原因是4月21日是新西兰原油2005年合约的最后一个交易日。如果不再出售合同,则合同持有人将必须交付合同,将油拿到手中,然后再将油运回去。 ,因为炼油公司不再想要它,它必须找到一个储存石油的地方。最后,在这种预期下,市场感到恐慌,因此,更多的人愿意花更多的钱放弃合同,以避免被动地ho积石油。

In fact, to put it bluntly, the original counterparty holding the contract sheet is gone, and the person who really wants to buy oil no longer accepts the order, so the person holding the contract can only do this in order to avoid being delivered. So, who is the opponent? It is nothing more than oil refining companies and people who need oil reserves. However, now these people are no longer accepting these oils on the grounds of the new crown epidemic.

实际上,坦率地说,持有合同表的原始交易对手已经消失,真正想购买石油的人不再接受该订单,因此,持有合同的人只能这样做,以避免被交付。那么,谁是对手?无非就是炼油公司和需要石油储备的人。但是,现在这些人不再以新的王冠流行为由接受这些油。

The above is the market logic of New Zealand crude oil falling to a negative value.

以上是新西兰原油跌至负值的市场逻辑。

However, if this logic is pure, shouldn't Brent crude oil fall sharply? The 2006 New Zealand crude oil contract should also plummet. After all, the new crown epidemic will not be good in one month, and the world economy will not be good! Why did the 2005 contract fall?

但是,如果这种逻辑是纯真的,布伦特原油难道不应该急剧下跌吗? 2006年新西兰原油合约也应暴跌。毕竟,新的王冠流行将在一个月之内变得不好,世界经济也不会很好!为什么2005年合同下降了?

In Zhanhao's view, all of this is actually an appropriate manipulation, a manipulation to achieve a special purpose, and all of this has its own very strong purpose.

在詹浩看来,所有这些实际上都是一种适当的操纵,是一种达到特殊目的的操纵,并且所有这些都有其自己的非常强烈的目的。

As far as the timing is concerned, it was very accurate. The test was completed on April 15 and it was staged on April 20, US time, which was very short. This is because you can only play this way before the delivery, otherwise it will continue to be negative for a long time, like China's "oil tiger", isn't it true that how much oil is consumed? Wouldn't it be a big loss? Therefore, it is necessary to find the last trading day, to suppress oil prices in this way is controllable.

就时间而言,它非常准确。该测试于4月15日完成,并于美国时间4月20日进行,时间非常短。这是因为您只能在交货之前就这样玩,否则它会长期处于负面状态,就像中国的“油老虎”一样,消耗了多少石油不是真的吗?这不是很大的损失吗?因此,有必要找到最后一个交易日,以此方式抑制油价是可控的。

For this reason, since April 30 is the last trading day, Brent crude oil is not affected much at all, and even the 2006 New Zealand crude oil contract has little impact. The panic created by the market and the so-called crude oil reserves full of such information will soon become transparent. This is to play a short, flat, fast, hard game to suppress oil prices. Considering that the cost of suppressing oil prices cannot be too high, it must be suppressed at the last moment before delivery.

因此,由于4月30日是最后一个交易日,因此布伦特原油的影响不大,甚至2006年新西兰原油合约的影响也很小。市场造成的恐慌和充满此类信息的所谓原油储备将很快变得透明。这是打一场简短,平稳,快速,艰苦的游戏,以打压油价。考虑到抑制油价的成本不能太高,必须在交货前的最后一刻将其抑制。

If the decline in oil prices this time is a suppression of oil prices, what is the purpose of the US suppression? In Zhanhao's view, this is the U.S. authorities and capital forces who are using the new crown epidemic to conspire to "anti-kill" their opponents! Taken together, there are four major purposes:

如果这次油价下跌是对油价的压制,那么美国压制的目的是什么?在詹豪看来,这是美国当局和首都部队正在利用新的王冠流行病来密谋“反杀”对手!总而言之,有四个主要目的:

Zhanhao had previously analyzed that the previous plunge in international oil prices was, to a certain extent, a “double reed” by Saudi Arabia and Russia using the new crown epidemic to “deduct” the contradiction between each other in terms of production cuts in exchange for the plunge in oil prices. Objectively, the US shale oil and gas industry was suppressed.

詹浩此前曾分析过,国际油价先前的暴跌在一定程度上是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯的“双重芦苇”,它使用新的官方流行病来“扣除”彼此在减产方面的矛盾,以换取石油价格暴跌。客观上,美国页岩油气工业受到压制。

The cost of Saudi oil is very low, about US$2 to US$5 a barrel, and Russia’s is not high, about US$5. Therefore, despite the international oil price plummeting, they can continue to export to make money despite the pressure, but the cost of shale oil in the United States is 60 US dollars a barrel. This blow is great for shale oil. The United States has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the development of shale oil, and these money investments may be in vain.

沙特的石油成本非常低,大约每桶2至5美元,而俄罗斯的石油价格并不高,大约每桶5美元。因此,尽管国际油价暴跌,尽管面临压力,它们仍可以继续出口赚钱,但美国的页岩油成本为每桶60美元。此打击对页岩油非常有用。美国已经在页岩油的开发上投资了数千亿美元,而这些资金投资可能是徒劳的。

In this context, the United States will use its futures market to seize pricing power. Suppressing oil prices and squeezing the economies of Russia and Saudi Arabia is the basis for compelling the two countries to compromise. Therefore, the United States simply does not stop and directly suppresses international oil prices, even to negative numbers.

在这种情况下,美国将利用其期货市场来掌握定价权。压低石油价格,挤压俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯的经济,是迫使两国妥协的基础。因此,美国根本不会停止,而是直接压制国际石油价格,甚至降到负数。

This suppression to a negative number is announcing to Saudi Arabia and Russia that the United States can fight hard and use technical capabilities to severely suppress oil prices. If necessary, the United States will continue to exert pressure to suppress international oil prices to extremely low levels, so that Saudi Arabia and Russia will lose this. Income.

这种压制为负数的做法向沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯宣布,美国可以进行艰苦的战斗并利用技术能力严厉压制油价。如有必要,美国将继续施加压力,将国际油价压至极低的水平,从而沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将失去这一压力。收入。

Therefore, this trick is to retaliate against Saudi Arabia and Russia, forcing them to cut production even more so as to maintain long-term oil price expectations. This is the intention of the US capital interests.

因此,这个招数是对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯进行报复,迫使它们进一步减产,以维持长期的石油价格预期。这是美国资本利益的意图。

Dealing with such a big thing cannot be just a matter of capital. In fact, it must be supported by political forces. So, for the United States, the epidemic has now half-paralyzed the US economy. In this case, what the US government wants is to throw the pot away for China. However, the U.S. economy is not good. If other countries’ economies are worse, does the U.S. look better?

处理这么大的事情不能只是资本问题。实际上,它必须得到政治力量的支持。因此,对于美国而言,这种流行病现在使美国经济陷入瘫痪。在这种情况下,美国政府想要的是把锅扔给中国。但是,美国经济不好。如果其他国家的经济状况更糟,美国看起来会更好吗?

Now that the United States has created panic by suppressing oil prices, it can further amplify the crisis and further ferment it on a global scale. The greater the international crisis, the better the United States appears. After all, the United States is the world's largest power and possesses financial investment hegemony. Once the global crisis breaks out, the U.S. dollar will have the opportunity to buy more cheap assets, which is beneficial to the United States.

现在,美国通过压制石油价格制造了恐慌,它可以进一步放大危机,并在全球范围内进一步消除它。国际危机越大,美国的情况就越好。毕竟,美国是世界上最大的大国,拥有金融投资霸权。全球危机爆发后,美元将有机会购买更多廉价资产,这对美国有利。

Now that the new crown epidemic is uncontrollable in the United States, Trump is a bit worried about being re-elected due to the new crown epidemic. Biden is sitting at home waiting for the presidential throne to hit his head. For Trump, now must fight hard. How to fight? In fact, according to the historical fact that the bigger the crisis, the higher the support that the president tends to get, then the bigger the global crisis, the more challenging Trump seems, and the greater the probability of Trump being re-elected.

既然新的王冠流行病在美国已无法控制,特朗普担心由于新的王冠流行病而再次当选。拜登坐在家里,等待总统宝座撞到他的头。对于特朗普而言,现在必须努力奋斗。怎么打?实际上,根据历史事实,危机越大,总统倾向于获得的支持就越高,那么全球危机越大,特朗普似乎就越具有挑战性,而特朗普再次当选的可能性就越大。

Moreover, if the crisis becomes greater, then Trump has reason to postpone the election so that he can buy time for himself. At the same time, if the crisis is greater, Trump can continue to occupy the presidency on wartime grounds. Therefore, from a campaign perspective, this adventure is easy to gain support.

此外,如果危机加剧,那么特朗普就有理由推迟选举,以便他可以为自己争取时间。同时,如果危机加剧,特朗普可以基于战时理由继续担任总统职位。因此,从竞选的角度来看,这种冒险很容易获得支持。

At the same time, the United States is actually gaining control over the world in wartime. The United States can manipulate prices at will, which can affect the global economy. The display of this ability is also a means by which the United States is doing everything possible to force its opponents to submit.

同时,美国在战时实际上已获得对世界的控制。美国可以随意操纵价格,这可能会影响全球经济。展现这种能力也是美国竭尽所能迫使其对手屈服的一种手段。

Yes, this is a counter-attack by the United States!

是的,这是美国的反击!

As Zhanhao said in his previous analysis, under the influence of the new crown epidemic, there will be many black swan incidents around the world, and this is the new black swan incident! ! ! In the future, there will be more unexpected black swans! ! !

正如詹浩在先前的分析中所说,在新的冠状流行病的影响下,世界范围内将有许多黑天鹅事件发生,这就是新的黑天鹅事件! ! !将来会有更多意想不到的黑天鹅! ! !

 
 
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